Events: Experts: China Ocean deteriorating situation at sea weak root
| Event Details:
Yin Zhuo, director of the Navy Information Expert Committee, Major General.
Quotations】 【Herald
Yin Cho: Now the United States to return to Asia, the lack of economic strength enough to support, so the only military superpower with the power to create new security problems
License: Solving the South China Sea can not be delayed, the later solution, China will pay a bigger political and economic costs
Glaser: For Westerners, "China will not challenge the United States or the existing international order" How many has become a "cliché" of the
【Interview】 motivation
From north to south, the soft underbelly of China's territorial seas security very prominent in the show this year. U.S. aircraft carrier was the Yellow Sea a boil stirring; Secretary of State Hillary casual remark, "It concerns American interests," storms are in the South China Sea; Japan on the Diaoyu Islands in China detained the captain to the undercurrent of tales of the East China Sea storm surge.
Ocean, never stirring the surging power dream. With the ocean or sea power that can make a nation through the ocean to become a great nation in all things. Outstanding 19th-century military strategist Mahan's famous for many years are in collision with each nation-state ambitions. Right now, the history and future of the bearing line has been placed in front of the Chinese! Only yellow water navy, how to promote sea power; Long trapped shallow coastal waters, so what is national rise.
We want to move to make China powerful, you must first read this piece of dark blue eyes:
The wisdom and heart in what, to the contentious issues left over by history of the island to seek a breakthrough? How to withstand various external pressures, practice their own sea power "Strength"? How to stand on national policy level, the development of measure and design a large sea power strategy to rid itself of a troubled sea and ocean without bound?
- Solution of the Ocean has been put on the subject of the agenda of China's rise.
License, Xiamen University, Institute of International Relations of marine experts.
Deterioration of the situation at sea weak root
"International Herald Tribune": 2010 is one of China's Diplomacy in the ocean and the controversy surrounding countries more prominent, from the Yellow Sea and East China Sea to the South China Sea are troubled times, the reasons for this phenomenon? These phenomena mean that the overall situation of China Ocean to worse?
License: These issues have highlighted this year, many domestic and international reasons,
Over the years, the Chinese mainland, "Ocean issues" in the Taiwan Strait issue occupy the first place, followed by the controversy surrounding waters. The end of June this year, the two sides signed the ECFA, closer economic ties, Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan authorities want to keep the status quo. The next 5 years to 10 years are less likely to cross-strait conflict. Previously, U.S. and Japan, often through the Taiwan issue, or the Taiwan authorities to put pressure on China. Currently, the United States and Japan to play the "Taiwan card" reduce the effectiveness of, the waters turn to other disputes start.
There are oceans highlight of this year China's own reasons: the weakness of China's own sea power, so that foreign forces can cost very little can strike a heavy blow to China. Hillary's a safety on the South China Sea on the U.S. national interest, to great earthquakes in China. Japan is a close ally of the United States control over the Diaoyu Islands by the actual control over the activities captured in the nearby waters with it echoes of Chinese fishermen.
Foregoing factors, resulting in the Chinese coastal embattled situation.
Yin Cho: On the surface this seems to highlight the oceans around China, in fact, my assessment is that the situation in China is the sea around one of the best in history. Maritime disputes surrounding the issue left over by history.
Before the end of the Cold War, that is until the mid-80s, is the most serious situation in the surrounding oceans period. The overall external situation facing China is the two superpowers, containment, or even the threat of nuclear war. According to the declassified Soviet archives and memoirs of several political figures can sum up the new China was founded, at least five times the United States to use nuclear weapons against China, the preparations for action.
After 80 years, the world situation and the overall environment in which China's diplomacy is "peace and development", the situation changes make China's maritime security environment has undergone a qualitative change. China faced a problem before, maritime safety and the islands dispute and other issues have been covered up. 80 years later, the basic lift the threat of nuclear war, maritime security issues, including Taiwan, the Diaoyu Islands issue, the South China Sea was exposed.
Glaser (Bonnie S
Glaser), the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies, Freeman, chairman of Chinese Studies.
Development of Sea Power factors need to be cautious response to the U.S.
Q: This year's foreign islands dispute highlights a new phenomenon in the United States intervention. U.S. factor constitutes a major strategic development of Chinese maritime external interference factors?
Yin Cho: The reason why the sea highlight this year, the United States is indeed an important factor in external factors. America will not be treated as 60,70 the last century Japan, the Philippines and Thailand, as the Asian economic aid and military assistance to both. Now the U.S. return to Asia, the lack of economic strength enough to support, so the only military superpower with the power to create new security issues, scare China's neighboring countries, resulting in conflicts between Asian countries.
China's maritime security to face the new and powerful factor in the United States. On the other hand it should be noted, though the focus of U.S. strategic intention is also to Asia. But the United States to return to Asia will be a fairly long historical period, the war on terrorism constraints on U.S. power is still quite large, is still a major threat to the United States. In this case, China needs to firmly grasp the strategic opportunity.
Glaser: China in the past few centuries are continental countries, the development process of China to the ocean will not be calm. U.S. marine and air are increasing the likelihood of conflict.
For Westerners, "China will not challenge the United States or the existing international order" How many has become a "cliché" the. In fact, in some respects, "China does not challenge U.S. interests and the existing order" is not true. This does not mean that China is trying to replace the U.S. as the world number one superpower, and subvert the international system. We should avoid exaggeration. China and other emerging countries on the rise, it will surely need to make some adjustments to the international order, it is not surprising.
There is no reason the United States against China will not become a maritime power. If the application is the deployment of the Chinese Navy is conducive to world stability, the United States would welcome it. Like now in the Gulf of Aden off Somalia happens. But if China is to prevent the U.S. Navy's activities to safeguard their own interests, it will cause more serious US friction.
There are slow to resolve island dispute acute
Q: solve the East China Sea South China Sea islands, the key dispute that? "Shelving disputes and seeking common development" principle is still useful and effective?
License: controversial issues in the South China Sea islands, not a "win-win" fantasy. Although bilateral and multilateral negotiations to defuse the situation, however, no meaningful negotiations, the final result can only be the cocoon is lost.
Currently, the most important thing is to take action. China should be in the South China Sea maritime boundary line (ie, "nine intermittent line") the power to send a strong maritime law enforcement patrols, the expulsion of the illegal invasion of foreign ships, defend their territory and marine interests are not violated. Like to take now the United States and ASEAN cooperation between the South China Sea is still in the initial stage, the camera back to take drastic measures to be occupied by neighboring small islands and reefs. Solve the South China Sea issue can not be delayed, the later solution, China will pay a larger political and economic costs.
East China Sea dispute seemingly simple bilateral conflict, is actually very paradoxical, treatment must be particularly cautious. Sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands issue is the United States and Japan after World War II was to contain the seeds planted deliberately. Now that China's sea power is far behind Japan and the U.S., China to take drastic actions if the United States and Japan will join forces at sea, hit China, the rise of the dream of the sea is bound to burst. May have to wait until the naval forces strong enough to the camera to take drastic measures.
Yin Zhuo: "putting aside disputes and seeking common development" still ahead of "Lord of ownership I am." But the sovereignty issue is not can not be negotiated. Raised in the history of "sovereignty issue can not negotiate" is a special historical background and the opportunity for the UK want to take ownership of Hong Kong's sovereignty in exchange for the purposes of governing power. In practice, the Sino-Russian border issues, particularly the division of Heixiazi Island, Burma, China-Mongolia border issues, both sides are a little compromise. No concession and compromise, could not get a breakthrough in border talks.
However, we object to a similar incident in Japan on the Diaoyu Islands, which in practice in the United States support, has taken to break the tacit agreement of both parties, a major move on the political challenge of China's interests. In this case, there is no room for negotiation and compromise.
Glaser: the differences between China and its neighbors, first of all by those countries should be resolved within. As long as they can be properly resolved, the United States there is no need to intervene. Only when the parties to the conflict want the U.S. to play a mediation role, the U.S. should do it. Friction in Sino-Japanese islands, my personal view is that the tripartite US-Japan high-level dialogue will be of great value, but that can not be treated as a day to act as arbitrator in the United States in the game. US-Asia Pacific and Japan are the three big countries, they should cooperate more closely.
Marine Strategy must be "we"
Q: China is to truly become a rising power, ocean strategy is indispensable. Do you think that China currently has ocean strategy? How such a strategy should be like?
Yin Zhuo: China has no clear national level maritime strategy, only the relevant departments, focusing on the national marine economy development strategy, the Navy's maritime strategy of course has its own thinking, but these are the acts of a department, not the act of state.
I have a proposal on this year's CPPCC session is to accelerate the development of national-level maritime security strategy. Ocean Strategy at least three aspects: maritime safety, marine development interests, and how to deal with disputes surrounding oceans.
Overall, the marine security strategy is defensive. Maritime security and the core interests of the major issues, or the Taiwan issue, which is related to the key issue of national reunification of China. The interests of Ocean Development is to ensure that routes safe. Issues surrounding islands dispute, the overall principle is that our economic development requires a peaceful international environment, do not want the island by military means to resolve the dispute issue, not wanted to spoil the external environment.
License: In general, the maritime strategy includes the following aspects: population and policy in the ocean; ocean geography; marine economy; marine technology (highlighted in naval equipment, marine law enforcement equipment); land-based support of sea power; navy and air force air resources and comprehensive development. Traditionally in China, attention to the neglect of land across China Xinjiang. Territorial seas and land the weight of Xinjiang, a direct impact on the marine strategy. Maritime strategy in the national strategy will determine the status of national decision-making resource allocation, also affects countries in Southeast Asia to Northeast Asia's strategic layout.
China's maritime strategy must be "we." China needs a long-term vision to five years, a hundred years, latitude to plan China's maritime strategy, and solid in practice, to train well, "Internal Strength." China's current advantageous situation is the rapid port development, infrastructure increasingly complete, China's long coastline has formed the Bohai Bay, Yangtze River Delta, the Taiwan Strait, Pearl River and the northern Gulf port chain, port group, which for the future Marine laid a solid foundation. China's shipping industry and the shipbuilding industry has developed rapidly. At present, the relative lack of the naval forces and air power cooperation.
Marine concentrated outbreak of conflict in 2010, sounded the alarm China Sea issue, perhaps this could become an opportunity to reflect on the national maritime strategy, and further attention to the ocean, the planning for marine strategy, the establishment of marine order and strengthen the maritime law enforcement capacity-building that agenda and laid the foundation of Chinese maritime power of the century.
(Editor: Liu Feng) |
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