Events: China's housing prices are beyond the convergence of the United States enter the era of the worl
| Event Details:
China's major cities prices are surpassing the United States if this is the "big convergence" A Characterization of the times?
Financial Times chief economist Martin - Wolf recently wrote that income convergence, growth divergence, which is the economic portrait of our times. We have witnessed the beginning of the 19th and 20th century era of the reversal of income divergence. That time, Western Europe, the most successful nation and its former colonies achieved relative to other nations in terms of significant economic advantage. Today, the trend reversed in the formation of the rapid pace than the trend. This is inevitable and desirable and.
Reverse divergence Kenneth University of California, Irvine - Bomeilanzi in an influential book describes between China and the West "Great Convergence." He pointed out that the 18th century and 19
Century divergence. This is controversial: the late Angus, Senior Research Fellow Statistics - Madison that the 1820 UK per capita output in China has three times the U.S. per capita output is twice as high. But, anyway, followed by a greater divergence. To the mid-20th century, China and India real per capita income (in purchasing power parity) were reduced to 5% of the U.S. and 7%. In addition, until 1980, the situation is almost unchanged.
Once lagged far behind the global technology center. Now, this divergence is reversed. This is a fact the world's largest. According to statistics of Madison from 1980 to 2008, China's per capita share of U.S. output per capita output from 6% to 22%, while India rose 10% from 5%. Research the world's largest enterprises of the "economic data pool"
After World War II era, the productivity of the developed economies rapid convergence is unprecedented. Japan is a pioneer, followed by South Korea and some East Asian tiger economies
This time, the convergence of unprecedented scale, is not unprecedented convergence of this fact, but the convergence of the scale. The 20th century, China will further Japan's 50's and 60's footsteps. Since then, it will still have 20
Very rapid growth phase in 2030, its per capita output roughly equivalent to 70% of the United States. By then, China's economy will reach the level of slightly less than three times the level of the U.S. economy, slightly higher than the United States and Western Europe combined economies of scale. India followed. In accordance with the recent growth rate, by 2030, India's economy will grow to the equivalent of about 80% of the United States, although its per capita output is still less than one-fifth of the United States.
China's economy today is the equivalent of Japan and the U.S. economy in 1950, the relative level. However, the absolute value of output per capita is much higher than Japan's, because the level of the United States has tripled. Today, China's real per capita GDP is roughly equivalent to the mid 20th century, 60 in Japan and South Korea the 20th century, the level of the mid-80s. India level equivalent to 50 in the early 20th century Japan, South Korea in the early 20th century, the level of 70.
In short, the successful emerging economies and high-income economies, the growth of today reflects the divergence between the rate of income convergence. This growth divergence is striking. Last November, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben - an important speech, Bernanke noted that the second quarter of 2010, emerging economies than the sum of real output grew by 41% in early 2005. Among them, 70% growth in China and India grew by about 55%. However, the actual output of developed economies, only increased by 5%. Emerging countries, the "big recession" fleeting, while high-income countries, it is a disaster.
An unstoppable trend, a large convergence is changing the world event. Today, the West (Editor: Si Han) |
|
|