Events: = 3000 attack on the "prosperity" illusion?
| Event Details:
Moderator: the last five trading days, the top market in 3000 were run during the third campaign of 3000 can declare success?
Zhang Xing: The tape mark the success probability of a great breakthrough in 3000. We are optimistic about the market this year, to 2012, 3000 will be a historic step on the foot.
Yan Li: From a technical perspective, the 3000 is just an integer mark, stand up on behalf of market stress eased, the future may see more atmosphere a little thicker. In fact, the real technical resistance at 3,100 points, in August 2009 high of 3478 points and 2010 in early November high of 3186 points with a drop into the pressure line, the location was close to 3100 points. Therefore, from a technical point of view, over the 3100 point mark an integer, truly broke up resistance.
Just look at the broader market 3,000 points mark the short term if a firm is technically available from the following two ways: One is the one-day break in the range of 1%, the second is two consecutive trading day closing point quite. Now, the broader market on the 3000 short-term stand-point mark, while the resistance in the face of rising short-term, mid-market but also ushered in a turning point, the end could not rule out the market.
Moderator: review 3000 third crucial points, mainly driven by the underestimation of the value of plate, then in 3000 on top, one-sided hot plate will take the form of cycle, or take turns blooming all plate form?
Zhang Xing: according to the laws of history, the performance of the bull market turns up in the plate, not all sections are rising, the high valuation of the GEM board small plate is constantly adjusted. In the current market, the normal cyclical stocks up, up is long overdue; many GEM companies, even if its share price cut is very hard to say a reasonable valuation. We believe that the high valuation of stocks, especially small and medium-GEM board stocks, dropped 30 percent the next is not surprising.
Valuation of fixed power is still not
Moderator: If a large firm to continue to 3000, what factors need to meet?
Zhang Xing: we care about is not a valid breakthrough in 3000, is concerned about "Manniu 'market will open. However, a more practical level, whether individuals or institutions, the stock held in their hands is the key. If the holders of the stock price more reasonable, future growth is also good, so even short-term decline, it does not matter. The current market risk and opportunities coexist, holding the high valuation of the GEM stocks, investors have cut may appear; but hold only single-digit price-earnings ratio of the dynamic banking stocks, it may not much risk.
Yan Li: We believe that the mid-market, take a good, then we need to support the environment, this environment is mainly specific to the stock market, policy support. Among them, the greatest impact of monetary policy on the stock market, and monetary policy to inflation this year will depend on the situation. Now, the tone of monetary tightening will not change, it should be said to support strong medium-term policy of market conditions are not met.
Moderator: This round of market on the current mainstream view that underestimate the value of plate, as a barometer of bank shares continue to rise if there is space?
Yan Li: If the current round of market valuation is only repaired, it certainly will not go too far. According to experience, valuation of fixed to 15% on the basic completion of the technical repair requirements, the market outlook in order to continue to rise, certainly not by the valuation of fixed, but future growth. At the same time, we should find out what is valuation of fixed, ie, the relative valuation of which plates have advantages. Growing faster than its performance or other plate so that a relatively undervalued the company, either pre-share price continued to stagnate while the results with the original flat. Recent market generally considered undervalued blue chips, but after experiencing rapid increases in short-term, the valuation of benefits is not so obvious.
Bank shares take a good year, mainly based on the spread angle. The latest increase in 2010 bank performance is very good, a higher probability than expected quarterly. However, relying solely on interest rate differential should be seen to improve performance, its future will become increasingly smaller space. We feel this year banks, shares may rise, but the space is more limited, as the rise in valuation of fixed power is actually already in decay.
How much power the stock of capital
Moderator: mainly relies on stock market capital to support, then the stock of money in the end how much from wind and waves can toss it?
Yan Li: I agree more money a great impact on the stock market point of view, the policy tightening cycle, the funds will be tight. Round of monetary tightening cycle, it is estimated the market will have a significant environmental impact. Indeed, the environment constraints, funds will be _select_ed in a number of investment opportunities in different fields, this time in fact we are keen to enter the real estate capital markets. But in recent months point of view, some funds come in, but was relatively low. The end of January some incremental funds into the market, the market has thus a wave of market. We look at the volume know the so-called incremental funding. This amount far short of everyone's expectations and come in relatively small incremental funding. Why does this happen? The reason is all the development of future lack of confidence in the stock market, do not think the market can go all the way cattle. In fact, the fund position from the beginning to now has been maintained at relatively high, despite some recent signs of lighten up, but the overall position is still high, which they will certainly increase the market constraints. In addition, we can also observe the volume to incremental funding approach, the current volume has not been enlarged, the stock of short-term funds to rely on maneuvers in different sections, the index is difficult to rise beyond the expected level.
Moderator: one from the card stock it's users to Zhang leaves questions, I firmly believe that market is "Manniu start" from the current situation, market speculation "road map" will be how to interpret?
Zhang Xing: Is cattle Manniu or fast these are not important, or these are pseudo-propositions, see 4,000 points after one year, may continue to be "Manniu." As for the roadmap of market speculation, this is indeed difficult to answer, the key to the market to see how speculation about what stock funds are interested in any new policy there. We suspect that the initial bull market, bull market is not really to a lot of people think that the bull market will not necessarily come in the hesitations in buying and selling stocks, many people make a little run. In my opinion, the best way is to hold the hands of a firm's stock will not change.
"Watershed" for the last caution before
Moderator: March macroeconomic data this week, the upcoming inflation data to be most concerned about, ask the teacher how to see Yan?
Yan Li: Guoxin estimates based on data from March CPI should be around 5.3%, if the data reported above 5.5 percent in March, I think the market's negative impact may be biased, because we expect inflation to continue tightening policy will lead to higher continue to produce.
Moderator: blue chips have completed a restoration, in 3000 near what strategy investors should take?
Zhang Xing: I think the key is investor choice is still risk. Bank shares Weilai downside risk is very limited, and small plates Taibu Fen GEM stocks are still there is a big adjustment request. In the final analysis, depends on the stock in your hands is not valuable, cheap things can certainly hold, is to sell your stuff.
Yan Li: It is now possible to market the so-called "watershed" from the operational point of view, the most significant current risk-averse investors can choose to first reduce in 3000 near the position, observing the market trend.
(Editor: Jiang Jiong) |
|
|