Events: A five factors affect stock prices in December
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A stock market in November Xianyanghouyi, magnificent, particularly the rapid decline in mid to late 11, so that the number of individual investors and institutional investors are feeling a little bit by surprise, as of yesterday, the Shanghai index fell in November total of 3.78%.
Time will be entered in December, while November CPI data are considered to high, monetary policy or a new action; the other hand, will be the central economic work
Trend of farm-related stocks in the China Railway China Ocean Shipping Container China Pacific Insurance
Meeting held soon, the tone toward macroeconomic policy concern, in the industrial policy or a new move; addition, the listed company in 2010 earnings becomes clearer, the performance in December will wave out of the market? And so on, factors that affect the market more in December.
Factor I: November-than-expected CPI will
November's CPI data will be released around December 10, following the September and October CPI data continuously high, the industry has been that November's CPI is expected to be high, may reach 5%. However, inflation may get out of control relative to the previous view, after Development and Reform Commission and other relevant departments strictly control the prices, the market's perspective has changed greatly.
In late November, the national multi-sectoral joint control of prices, from 20 November exercising strict control over prices, the State Council published "16 measures" after the Development and Reform Commission last week, and bursts of five articles, to convey the spirit of implementation; China Banking Regulatory Commission also said in support of key agricultural goods supply and the fight against hoarding, speculation. In the country "under fire" policy, under the control of the market even if the November CPI data is expected to be high, the possibility of runaway inflation, a small, 12-month data will be eased. "In the country so the case of strictly controlling the price, November CPI data is within expectations, which is the key issue, the market expects a chain reaction that may occur." A market source said, will again raise interest rates during the year, 11 months of data would seem crucial.
Two factors: whether to raise interest rates during the year
Within the next month, the central bank will raise interest rates, the question is, "cliché", but it is always hanging in the market at the top of the "sword of Damocles" in the not finalized before the market which will always in a state of fear and trepidation.
Three factors: the central economic work conference _set_ the tone
According to past practice, the central economic work conference is usually held in early December, it is considered the highest level of economic analysis and decision-making meetings. This year's Central Economic Work Conference for the formulation of monetary policy next year will be the biggest attraction.
Guotai Junan's report said that the monetary policy, fiscal policy and the market valuation of the three factors, the central economic work conference _set_ the tone for change has significant impact on the market, monetary policy next year if, as expected, turned loose by the moderately strong, while in 2000 similar to the end: turn tight monetary policy, fiscal policy remains unchanged, but considering the valuation is now cheaper than in the past, two-phase balance, the larger the probability that the market was flat.
Short term, the central economic work conference over the years the impact on the market showed strong performance prior to the meeting probability of a larger broader market, particularly meeting the week before, the broader market since 2006 have achieved a positive return; but after the meeting, the market's performance on the basic no rules to follow. Meanwhile, the central work conference on the arrangement of work next year is also of concern, help investors identify market investment themes for the coming year.
Four factors: the end would produce "performance wave"
Frequency of new shares this year, especially the small plates of new shares and the GEM, the current market in the earnings of the most "cold" is probably the potential for high turn sent stocks, which is funding the recent small cap stocks continued to push one of the reasons high school.
Performance of listed companies from the recent notice of view, information display, the 736 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen notice of annual results in November but at a relatively "low season", 11 months notice of only 12 companies reported earnings for fiscal 2010 situation. Into December, released annual results of listed companies is expected to increase the number of notice, and near the end of the year, according to practice in previous years, the market performance of high-growth company or a clear pursuit of this speculation will resonate in the A-share market, impact How much popularity on the market for A shares in December is also very critical.
Five factors: the market value at the end of the third ban
November's peak was not unharmed through the lifting of the ban, even though the broader market fell market value may not be high due to the reasons for lifting the ban, but the large number of listed stocks lifted somewhat affected, especially the first batch of GEM stocks, selling the intensity is still very large. To December of view, lifting the number of 56,824,000,000 shares of stock, second only to November; market capitalization of up to 604.9 billion yuan, second only to November and January, the capital side of the market is a test.
Stocks lifted from the December run, lifting a large amount of mainly large-cap stocks, including China Railway Group, China Shipping, COSCO, and China Pacific Insurance, the amount of lifting of the ban are more than 50 million shares, and shareholders are limited to selling the original starting shares; a number of small plates of starting the original shareholders restricted shares will be lifted, may be selling the "disastrous."
(Editor: Li Rui) |
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