Events: Who gold bubble burst? Finally, pay speculators who Jixun
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Gold hit record highs, the speculative master George Soros has published Spirit declaration: "I put the gold as the ultimate bubble, which means that gold may rise, but certainly not safe, and does not always go higher." Soros warning, played a little warning, but not enough to pierce the so-called gold investment bubble.
As at 17:00 on September 21, COMEX Gold December contract closed at $ 1,282 / oz, from a record high $ 1,285.2 / oz within a whisker.
Among the many investment demand frenzy pushed the price of gold continued to refresh high behind, gold has "caught in the woods"? Market seems to have quietly given the signal.
Pushing up the price of gold investment demand
At least, Soros ultimate bubble in gold on gold, speculators are not the usual "thief shouting Zhuizei" trick.
The first quarter of this year, Soros Fund Management Company holds a total of $ 658 million gold shares of listed companies, accounting for $ 25 billion as_set_ size of 2.6%, but this year the first gold record high refresh point, the reduction of nearly $ 41 million Soros Gold-mining shares of listed companies.
A macro hedge fund manager said: "At the time of Soros Fund Management trader identified the continuing rise in gold prices has stifled consumer demand for physical gold."
From Arab countries during the holy month of Ramadan to Eid al-Fitr, the traditional peak season for gold consumption has not emerged, but sales fell more than 25%. Even the popular 24K gold Vienna Philharmonic Orchestra in the past year ended August sales fell more than 40%.
"Diwali in India this fall, gold will not necessarily increase the demand now entirely dependent on the so-called investment demand in the promotion of high gold prices, some of which speculative capital in the use of so-called China's gold demand and underestimated the theory of speculative bullish on gold. "he said.
September 20, the World Gold Council, said Albert Cheng, managing director of Far East, the next five years, the gold market will be dominated by the China factor. At present, China is the largest producer of gold and second largest gold consumer, is the only consumer of gold jewelry last year, have increased the country. Albert Cheng, the Chinese gold market is expected to retail this year, investment demand will reach 100 tons by 2019 increased to 900 tons.
"The forecast is not without justification, but some rely on Chinese demand for hedge fund investment strategies using the above data might stir up trouble." The fund manager told reporters.
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) latest data show that as of September 14 the week, holding a variety of fund new gold positions 10870 (1 of 100 ounces), net long position of 244,261 for June 29 the highest level since.
"Part of the buying is for a series of weak U.S. economic data for the hedge investment, there is a certain percentage is optimistic about China's gold demand growth and rapid speculative buying up gold." He says.
Reporters learned that the recent "China needs" as the main strategy of investment in hedge funds is increasing rapidly. Their investment strategy is simple - if China's fixed as_set_ investment growth than expected, they will buy up short-term copper and aluminum and other metal products, one that China is Japan's holdings of government bonds, they will short-term gamble yen; not China investment dynamics, they will simply buy up agricultural products and gold speculators.
Some "golden underestimate theory" is also popular in the field of global investment. One is linked to the U.S. inflation rate structure research, that given that the U.S. consumer price index factors, the current price of gold is only the equivalent of January 1980
$ 454.88 / ounce, than gold at a record high $ 873 / ounce lower 50%. Excluding inflation, the price of gold rose to $ 2,435 at / ounce, which is the real hit "record."
"On a variety of mathematical models underestimate the gold very much, mainly to attract those who chase the admission that some speculators with profits relaxed environment." The hedge fund manager said.
Who will finally pay?
Gold ferocious rally, the same power of short selling of gold surging.
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data, as of September 14 the week, commercial net short positions increase in 5259 the same position, or even the week to off_set_ the fund's 4564 net new long positions.
"Currently, there is a certain spot of the gold mining business background and gold traders are an important force in short selling of gold." TOPIX futures analyst Lu and Qin said, "gold miners fear the dollar rebounded and improved economic data on the composition of the gold price pressure to advance income arbitrage hedge short gold lock. "
"Even some of the gold miners started a lot of short selling in the futures market, gold mining contract revenue lock, then get the futures market, gold mining _set_tlement." Lincoln Canadian mining company president Paul Saxton (Paul
Sexton) said. Gold prices broke through in 1250 U.S. dollars / ounce, gold mining, Canada's net profit has more than 70%, enough to attract a lot of gold miners to the gold futures market ahead of short-selling hedge, after all, the average price of gold over the past few years, only 800-900 USD / ounce.
"Foot the bill" has been quietly coming out. In July, Thailand's massive holdings through open market 500,000 ounces of gold, an increase of 20% of its gold holdings to 3.2 million ounces.
The Bank of Japan in September unilateral intervention in the yen exchange rate, may also lead to increased investment in global foreign exchange reserves, gold re-distributed proportion. "After all, when the world's major currencies, U.S. dollar, the euro and the sharp depreciation of the yen are the trend, more and more capital can only be _select_ed as the last safe haven of gold." Qin Lu and said that this is precisely the bullish on gold are the most willing to see the results. (Editor: TIAN Ying) |
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