Events: HO Chi Shing: U.S. dollars, the stock market, why in the beginning of commodities soar
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Early 2011, there is a global market anomalies: the dollar rebounded, almost all global stock markets rise, Chinese stock market is also the first trading day up 40 points or more, and finally closed at 2850 points above the critical point. Many investors have questions: Since the dollar rose more, the stock market is not "兔子尾巴长不了"?
Rising dollar is a technical
The dollar index was on the end of last week there was a substantial adjustment, but down stop at the large "flag" along the top of the map, although a small flag map below key support at 79.5, but not below the key support at 78.75 Therefore, the dollar rebounded in early 2011 is a technology choice based. Meanwhile, in 2010 a large increase commodity currency, the end of 2010 did not appear in the perfect breakout, so in early 2011 also has a callback, the possibility of re-_select_ direction.
The dollar index accounted for the two largest currency, the euro and the yen, the final stage of the end of 2010 was strong, but the graphics do not indicate rising again, in which the euro out of the two longitudinal symmetry of the "gully graphics", indicating the beginning of the first a trading week, the callback is the main tone of the test support; As for the yen, the time of the end of 2010 has made a small double bottom, rebounding trend has been established. Therefore, comprehensive analysis from a technical side, the dollar index will continue in the first week of 2011, the trend of the end of 2010, a rebound is certain.
Where the dollar index rebounded goal?
2010 Why U.S. dollar index fell last week? 79.5 Powei technically, this point will form a resistance to the dollar's rally? Such as the above analysis, the dollar is one of this week's upward momentum from last week's decline was too violent, and the dollar last week, the biggest adjustment is the fundamental factor to speed up appreciation of the renminbi, and the Chinese government decided to support the euro.
Since the euro and the yen needs to call back, we can not come to the U.S. dollar index peaked at 79.50 in the conclusion. 79.5 breakthrough is inevitable, the U.S. dollar index is still the shock city.
U.S. dollar, the stock market and commodities soar?
Market, the most worried about is two things: First, the dollar rose unwinding will cause the stock market, including the U.S. dollar index reversed a long run of gold and commodities would fall significantly? Second, a major U.S. financial crisis does not occur, for example, many economists predicted that the debt crisis? If these two things in one place, the Chinese stock market will crash.
We know that the dollar's ups and downs there are two fundamental factors: first, the so-called needs of global risk aversion or risk appetite index of the market said that when the market outside the United States or a significant potential risks, resulting in market risk appetite index When the downward revaluation of the U.S. bond investors will be sought after the world, driving the dollar index rose, stocks fell; the other hand, increased risk appetite index, the stock market will rise, bond nausea, the dollar is also weakening. This is called the seesaw and the U.S. dollar index corresponding law; the second is when the U.S. economy is more positive changes occurring, endogenous power the U.S. economy strengthened, the market predicts that the U.S. economy in the next period of time will be faster than the speed of development of other economies, U.S. bond yields will rise, while the dollar strengthened. I call this rising dollar rose endogenous and sustainable. Of course, this usually only occurs at the bottom in the dollar area, and when the economy is at the bottom. At this point it is precisely this situation. So, to say the dollar and the stock market, commodities market may not always be a seesaw, the U.S. dollar and U.S. stock market, global stock markets the reverse operation is not absolute. The current U.S. economic data has just started to improve, and the dollar is still in the bottom area of the history, therefore, although the U.S. stock market in 2010 had already risen 15%, but there is room to rise. Our first month in 2011 should see the dollar and the stock market, commodities soar situation.
Both fundamental and technical support for A shares?
China's stock market closed in the red end of the year can be tough, the Shanghai index to stand on the 2800-point mark, indicating that the holiday market (after the National Day last year, the stock market) may be copied in the New Year Festival.
(Editor: Jiang Jiong) |
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