Events: Fred Hu: the risk of inflation remains high there is room to raise interest rates
| Event Details:
April 14 -16, 2011 Annual Conference of Boao Forum for Asia held in Boao, on the theme: "Inclusive Development: a common agenda and global challenges." Sohu Finance site interview at the Boao economic expert, founder Fred Hu Chunhua capital:
Sohu Finance: There is a saying, to control the total amount of social financing, you think this control will not hinder the entry of private capital?
Fred Hu: the so-called social financing of the total, for now, this is the macroeconomic cycle. Macro-control, because the slightly overheated Chinese economy, then there is inflation which is right. But I think every time the macro-control, hurt the most is the small and medium enterprises, private enterprises, the Government should pay special attention this time, not a single large state-owned enterprises may profit a lot, a lot of its own funds, financing can not survive, and have been very good, but not completely stuck SMEs a way out, and so for our restructuring, employment, taxes are very bad for people's livelihood, social harmony and stability is also very unfavorable.
Sohu Finance: It is reported that in March the CPI is 5.4%, how do you see in this data?
Fred Hu: both CPI up to 5.5 or back to 4.9, can not explain too many problems. However, the most recent macroeconomic data, including CPI, indicate that China's inflation situation is quite serious, the risk of inflation is high, so this means you have problems with the macro-control of the situation will not change, follow-up policy also needs to continue to tighten.
Sohu Finance: Do you think there is much to raise interest rates now?
Fred Hu: China's real interest rate is basically negative, they still have space.
Sohu Finance: space is getting bigger, right?
Fred Hu: Yes.
Sohu Finance: 4% annual CPI target to complete it?
Fred Hu: Of course! If an appropriate macro-control policies, and implement effective, then the inflation below 4% is possible, but difficult.
Sohu Finance: The main difficulty comes from what you think?
Fred Hu: is the structure of macro-control policies, design it properly, the final implementation is not effective.
Sohu Finance: whether it is more focused on aspects of implementation?
Fred Hu: both relations.
Sohu Finance: It is properly designed, what is meant?
Fred Hu: This is the economists say, the monetary policy, fiscal policy how.
Sohu Finance: Midwest market, such as such as Hainan, small loan companies, rural banks just up, just for the development of private capital into this area and the market has any suggestions?
Fred Hu: I think a lot of patterns in central and western Zhejiang Province since the reference can be, as we have talked about the financing of SMEs, then we go to large banks, SME Bank said the risk is high, there is no collateral. You see these small banks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang University, including city banks, rural banks, their customers are SMEs, and its as_set_ quality is very good, non-performing loans is also very low. So it's business model, business model, risk management, credit assessment capabilities, its experience and can be in the Midwest to learn.
Sohu Finance: Does that mean they are the central and western side of private capital into the financial market is a good opportunity.
Fred Hu: Yes.
Sohu Finance: This seems to Hainan has been confirmed, came in village banks are basically foreign capital.
Fred Hu: This is very good, and capital should not have been forbidden in the free flow of domestic region, even from abroad can later be cross-border freedom of movement can be, this is efficient, the capital looking for the best opportunities, the most good returns, so as the central and western Hainan these relatively underdeveloped financial sector, financing bottleneck is relatively high, small and medium enterprises in particular need to grow this place, to have foreign capital come to open financial institutions to provide financing services, which is very, very beneficial.
(Editor: Si Han) |
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