Events: Alarmist? A global economic recession is coming
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30's of last century, human beings protect themselves through a trade war, the result is depression plus century world wars, today, countries around the world printing money mad, or essence as much as possible to protect themselves, the so-called global cooperation is just a political show, in fact, no one to another country or group sacrificed the interests of even a little bit!
The reason I say that the century recession is coming, because a hundred years, humanity has not changed, camp has not changed, the selfishness of human nature is nothing wrong, you do not need to issue complaints against God made man, camp has not changed but the role of adjustment the past, the West against the Soviet Union, today West and the East, the United States to China, in essence, or in wrestling! so cooperative, but a political strategy and economic interdependence of a compromise product.
Why century, the advent of recession, it seems reason enough to fully, as follows:
1, the European debt crisis
This systemic problem is caused in Europe the main cause of continued deterioration of debt, a country that continue to create value, the more that can be shared, otherwise less, that the economy down, being up, the longer the gap bigger so do not Fantasy debt problems as long as the EU aid Greece, Ireland, all right, it is simply impossible.
2, the EU's tightening
EU is the world's largest market, the EU countries in debt crisis, fiscal deficit reduction plus plan, the needs of the whole society will lead to atrophy, reduction of state expenditure, which means that the world's largest market is moving towards shrinking, shrinking his world Shang Any export enterprises will be affected, due to the lag effect, its impact may appear the year after next year because of financial constraints has just begun!
3, the U.S. steel dance will not last long jump
American fantasy money to save the economy again with massive, in fact, walking a tightrope, on one hand that U.S. Treasuries suffered a crisis of confidence, worried that rampant inflation, and he expected the economic recovery, employment recovery, corresponding to massive currency, feedback pitiful, so this The adventure has caused other countries, including the United States questioned the sustainability of its economic policy, it is doubtful, if terminated, the effect can be imagined, from the recent financial advisers have sacked the economy can be seen, definitely not the way the future will this continue!
4, China's rapid economic development has been a bottleneck
For the domestic economy, I have said, the focus is as follows:
1, the investment-led, high-speed rail after you can go in four trillion, can not!
2, the domestic demand, stimulate, after how many potential consumer demand, not forecast, but the divide between rich and poor to the level of the domestic point of view, almost all the buy buy, the more can not afford can not afford to cars and real estate point of view, is absolutely true!
3, the export-led, from the external environment, must not optimistic estimate!
4, innovation, still very poor!
5, governance, more confusion, abuse of government power, waste of resources, monopoly run amok, and the so-called control, the result is even worse results!
6, population structure, is facing a turning point, no matter how you promote, the profligate squandering of almost all!
7, the industrial structure, surplus continues to steel, automobiles for the most!
8, upgrading industrial innovation, innovation is the so-called bubble, if the withdrawal of all foreign investment, can not imagine what is there left, the floor of the zone is almost empty! So it bubbles, a blow to burst, to the current level of management the so-called innovation is bound to be invincible fortress killed in the cradle, so the best competitive strategy is that we each cottage, 360 Tencent, but that cottage you me, I cottage you, then afford, and started fighting the The results, so in such a governance level, you can expect the innovation?
More than 8 indicates the trend of the economy, not too pessimistic, but certainly not optimistic, do not look down upon India, Vietnam, and we score that point, it is easy to copy, easy to surpass, not past 30 years, 20 years ago, is valid and your home like, now sawed! you think leadership is the sky of our beloved man of God? No, but that is normal, dry point of social development to adapt to what it should be dry, the only sector with god only statistical skills Board!
Other social problems do not repeat them, and finally reaffirms conclusions, if fully turn off the main engine of world economy, globalization will exacerbate the negative impact of mutual influence, we are likely to face only a recession, today's alarmist one, to do validation in future history! |
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