阅读斯蒂芬·施奈德 Stephen Schneider在百家争鸣的作品!!! | |||
人生有时会由于一个日子而完全改变。1970年4月22日，美国数十万群众走上街头，呼吁创造一个清洁、简单、和平的生活环境。由此而来的“地球日”成为现代环保运动的开端，也改变了斯蒂芬·施奈德（Stephen Schneider）的职业生涯。那一年，25岁的施奈德还是纽约哥伦比亚大学一名机械工程和等离子物理学的博士生。
在此两年前，哥伦比亚大学正处于学生反战抗议运动的中心。施奈德最初并未介入，他并不赞同那些激进的学运分子“你或者和我们站在一起，或者反对我们”的口号。但是，当校方终于同意与学生代表谈判时，他觉得是站出来的时候了。
施奈德被选举为一个新成立的对话委员会的副主席，也给了他难得的“政治培训”：必须倾听双方的意见，要承认每一方的观点中都有合理因素，然后试图在不同的价值体系和观点中，寻找一条双方都能接受的道路，以实现双赢。多年后，当他在气候变化科学研究领域遭遇现实的障碍时，这种感悟亦成为与公众和反对者沟通的指导原则。
获得博士学位的施奈德转投美国国家宇航局（NASA）戈达德（Goddard）太空研究所做博士后，开始气候变化的研究。1972年，他受邀在美国科学促进会的年会上发言。他的发现之一是，大气微粒将导致地球变冷，而温室气体将使地球变暖。他警告公众，这“并非最终结论，特别是在哪种效果将占主导地位上”。他还修改了马克·吐温的一句名言，来说明这一结论的不确定性：“人人都在对天气做些什么，但没有人谈论它”（原文是：人人都在谈论天气，但没有一个人能对它有所作为）。
第二天，施奈德的名字登上了《纽约时报》，带来的却是学界同仁的不屑和不满。那时许多人认为，研究现实世界的科学家无法做到客观。不过，这件事也让施奈德此后自觉地承担起气候变化传播者的角色。他试图找到能向公众和政策制定者传递气候科学发现兼具的紧迫性和不确定性的方法。但现实证明这不是一件容易的事。1972年，施奈德转到位于美国中西部的科罗拉多州的国家大气研究所。三年后，他创办了一份跨学科学术期刊 《气候变化》。即使在1992年转到斯坦福大学任教后，他继续担任主编，直到2010年7月19日因心脏病突发去世。
借用卫星、计算机等现代技术工具，施奈德通过复杂的数学模型，对相关的要素进行定量分析，比如通过海洋的动态和云层的变化等，来预测未来大气温度的变化。在定量分析的同时，他也特别重视风险评估。因为引起气候变化的人类活动具有内在的不确定性。不同的主观价值体系，对气候变化可能带来的“危险”认知也是不同的。施奈德曾撰文指出，如果地球温度升高1摄氏度至2摄氏度，将对生态系统产生威胁，小岛国也将面临生存的威胁；如果地球温度升高大于5摄氏度，将带来灾难性的变化。
1988年，当联合国环境规划署政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）成立时，施奈德成为核心成员之一。2007年，IPCC和美国前副总统戈尔一起被授予诺贝尔和平奖。
具有讽刺意味的是，作为环保运动的发源地，施奈德的母国美国却在气候变化问题上趋于保守和退步。在2001年退出《京都议定书》后，美国的政客和公众对气候变化多持怀疑和否定态度。施奈德为此通过著作、大量的公众演讲以及与媒体的互动不懈游说，因此被很多人称为“气候斗士”。
2009年12月，联合国哥本哈根气候大会召开前，施奈德发表了一篇长文，对不久前发生的英国东安格利亚大学气候科学家电子邮件泄露门一事进行了回应。他谴责那些非法窃取邮件的“黑客”，也严谨地反驳了那些气候怀疑论者对邮件中涉及的一些科学用语的非科学理解。
施奈德出生于纽约长岛。2001年，他被诊断出患有一种罕见的脑膜炎。他将工作中的决定分析模型运用到自己的治疗上，与妻子商定修改医生早先的治疗方案。四年后，在以个人经历撰写的《来自地狱的病人》一书中，施奈德呼吁所有的病人：“如果不适合你，不要没有斗争，就接受一个标准的治疗方案。”
(曹海丽)
His research included modeling of the atmosphere, climate change, and "the relationship of biological systems to global climate change." Schneider was the founder and editor of the journal Climatic Change and authored or co-authored over 450 scientific papers and other publications. He was a Coordinating Lead Author in Working Group II IPCC TAR and was engaged as a co-anchor of the Key Vulnerabilities Cross-Cutting Theme for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) at the time of his death. During the 1980s, Schneider emerged as a leading public advocate of sharp reductions of greenhouse gas emissions to combat global warming.
Early work
Schneider grew up in Long Island, New York. He studied engineering at Columbia University, receiving his bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering in 1966. In 1971, he earned a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering and plasma physics. Schneider studied the role of greenhouse gases and suspended particulate material on climate as a postdoctoral fellow at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. After briefly warning that the earth could be facing an ice age, he turned his attention to the threat he perceived as coming from warming.
In 1971, Schneider was second author on a Science paper with S. I. Rasool titled "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate" (Science 173, 138–141). This paper used a 1-d radiative transfer model to examine the competing effects of cooling from aerosols and warming from CO2. The paper concluded:
However, it is projected that man's potential to pollute will increase 6 to 8-fold in the next 50 years. If this increased rate of injection... should raise the present background opacity by a factor of 4, our calculations suggest a decrease in global temperature by as much as 3.5 °C. Such a large decrease in the average temperature of Earth, sustained over a period of few years, is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age. However, by that time, nuclear power may have largely replaced fossil fuels as a means of energy production.
Carbon dioxide was predicted to have only a minor role. However, the model was very simple and the calculation of the CO2 effect was lower than other estimates by a factor of about three, as noted in a footnote to the paper.
In 1976 Schneider wrote The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival in which he said:
One form of such pollution that affects the entire atmosphere is the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas.... Human activities have already raised the CO2 content in the atmosphere by 10 percent and are estimated to raise it some 25 percent by the year 2000. In later chapters, I will show how this increase could lead to a 1° Celsius (1.8° Fahrenheit) average warming of the earth's surface... Another form of atmospheric pollution results from... atmospheric aerosols... there is some evidence that atmospheric aerosols may have already affected the climate. A consensus among scientists today would hold that a global increase in atmospheric aerosols would probably result in a cooling of the climate; however, a smaller but growing fraction of the current evidence suggests that it may have a warming effect.
And in another section (What Does It All Mean?", p. 90):
I have cited many examples of recent climatic variability and repeated the warnings of several well-known climatologists that a cooling effect has set in – perhaps one akin to the Little Ice Age - and that climatic variability, which is the bane of reliable food production, can be expected to increase along with the cooling.
In 1977 Schneider criticized a popular science book (The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age) that predicted an imminent Ice Age, writing in Nature:
...it insists on maintaining the shock effect of the dramatic...rather than the reality of the discipline: we just don't know enough to choose definitely at this stage whether we are in for warming or cooling— or when.
[edit]Media contributions
He was a frequent contributor to commercial and noncommercial print and broadcast media on climate and environmental issues, e.g., NOVA, Planet Earth, Nightline, Today Show, Tonight Show, Good Morning America, Dateline, Discovery Channel, British, Canadian and Australian Broadcasting Corporations.
Schneider has commented about the frustrations and difficulties involved with assessing and communicating scientific ideas.
In a January 2002 Scientific American article Schneider wrote:
I readily confess a lingering frustration: uncertainties so infuse the issue of climate change that it is still impossible to rule out either mild or catastrophic outcomes, let alone provide confident probabilities for all the claims and counterclaims made about environmental problems. Even the most credible international assessment body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has refused to attempt subjective probabilistic estimates of future temperatures. This has forced politicians to make their own guesses about the likelihood of various degrees of global warming.
In 1989, Schneider addressed the challenge scientists face trying to communicate complex, important issues without adequate time during media interviews. This citation sometimes was used by his critics to accuse him of supporting misuse of science for political goals:
On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we'd like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both. (Quoted in Discover, pp. 45–48, Oct. 1989. For the original, together with Schneider's commentary on its misrepresentation, see also American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996.).
Schneider has accused people, including Julian Simon, of deliberately taking this quote out of context in order to misrepresent his views.
[edit]Honors
1992 MacArthur Fellow "Genius Award".
2002 Elected to the National Academy of Sciences.
Chair of the American Association for the Advancement of Science’s Section on Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences (1999–2001).
Received a collective Nobel Peace Prize for his joint efforts with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007).
[edit]Personal
Schneider was a survivor of an aggressive cancer, mantle cell lymphoma. He documented his struggle to conquer the condition, including applying his own knowledge of science to design his own treatment regime, in a self-published 2005 book, The Patient from Hell. He died unexpectedly on July 19, 2010 after suffering a pulmonary embolism while returning from a scientific meeting in Käringön, Sweden.
[edit]Selected publications
Michael D. Mastrandrea; Stephen H. Schneider (October 2010). Preparing for Climate Change. MIT Press. ISBN 0-262-01488-2.
Stephen H. Schneider, Tim Flannery introduction (2009) 'Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save the Earth's Climate. National Geographic (November 3, 2009) ISBN 978-1426205408
Stephen H. Schneider, Janica Lane (2005) The Patient from Hell: How I Worked with My Doctors to Get the Best of Modern Medicine and How You Can Too. Da Capo Lifelong Books.
Stephen H. Schneider, Armin Rosencranz, John O. Niles (eds., 2002), Climate Change Policy: A Survey, Island Press, 368 pp; June 2002.
Stephen H. Schneider and Terry L. Root (Editors, 2001), Wildlife Responses to Climate Change: North American Case Studies, Island Press; December 2001.
Stephen H. Schneider (1997), Laboratory Earth: the Planetary Gamble We Can't Afford to Lose, HarperCollins; January 1997
Stephen H. Schneider (Editor, 1996), Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather, Oxford University Press; May 1996.
Stephen H. Schneider, Penelope J. Boston (Eds, 1992), Scientists on Gaia, MIT Press; February 1992
Stephen H. Schneider (1989), Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century?, Sierra Club Books; October 1989
Stephen H. Schneider, Randi Londer (1984), Coevolution of Climate and Life, Sierra Club Books; May 1984
Stephen H. Schneider, Lynne E. Mesirow (1976), The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival, Plenum Pub Corp; April 1976.