yuèdòusī dì fēn · shī nài dé Stephen Schneiderzài百家争鸣dezuòpǐn!!! | |||
rén shēng yòu shí huì yóu yú yī gè rì zǐ 'ér wán quán gǎi biàn。 1970 nián 4 yuè 22 rì， měi guó shù shí wàn qún zhòng zǒu shàng jiē tóu， hūyù chuàng zào yī gè qīng jié、 jiǎn dān、 hé píng de shēng huó huán jìng。 yóu cǐ 'ér lái de “ dì qiú rì ” chéng wéi xiàn dài huán bǎo yùn dòng de kāi duān， yě gǎi biàn liǎo sī dì fēn · shī nài dé（ StephenSchneider） de zhí yè shēng yá。 nà yī nián， 25 suì de shī nài dé hái shì niǔ yuē gē lún bǐ yà dà xué yī míng jī xiè gōng chéng hé děng lí zǐ wù lǐ xué de bó shì shēng。
zài cǐ liǎng nián qián， gē lún bǐ yà dà xué zhèng chǔyú xué shēng fǎn zhàn kàng yì yùn dòng de zhōng xīn。 shī nài dé zuì chū bìng wèi jiè rù， tā bìng bù zàn tóng nà xiē jī jìn de xué yùn fènzǐ“ nǐ huò zhě hé wǒ men zhàn zài yī qǐ， huò zhě fǎn duì wǒ men” de kǒu hào。 dàn shì， dāng xiào fāng zhōng yú tóng yì yǔ xué shēng dài biǎo tán pàn shí， tā jué dé shì zhàn chū lái de shí hòu liǎo。
shī nài dé bèi xuǎn jǔ wéi yī gè xīn chéng lì de duì huà wěi yuán huì de fù zhù xí， yě gěi liǎo tā nán dé de“ zhèng zhì péi xùn”： bì xū qīng tīng shuāng fāng de yì jiàn， yào chéng rèn měi yī fāng de guān diǎn zhōng dōuyòu hé lǐ yīn sù， rán hòu shì tú zài bù tóng de jià zhí tǐ xì hé guān diǎn zhōng， xún zhǎo yī tiáo shuāng fāng dōunéng jiē shòu de dào lù， yǐ shí xiàn shuāng yíng。 duō nián hòu， dāng tā zài qì hòu biàn huà kē xué yán jiū lǐng yù zāo yù xiàn shí de zhàng 'ài shí， zhè zhǒng gǎn wù yì chéng wéi yǔ gōng zhòng hé fǎn duì zhě gōu tōng de zhǐ dǎo yuán zé。
huò dé bó shì xué wèi de shī nài dé zhuǎn tóu měi guó guó jiā yǔ háng jú（ NASA） gē dá dé（ Goddard） tài kōng yán jiū suǒ zuò bó shì hòu， kāi shǐ qì hòu biàn huà de yán jiū。 1972 nián， tā shòu yāo zài měi guó kē xué cù jìn huì de nián huì shàng fā yán。 tā de fā xiàn zhī yī shì， dà qì wēi lì jiāng dǎo zhì dì qiú biàn lěng， ér wēn shì qì tǐ jiāng shǐ dì qiú biàn nuǎn。 tā jǐng gào gōng zhòng， zhè“ bìng fēi zuì zhōng jié lùn， tè bié shì zài nǎ zhǒng xiào guǒ jiāng zhàn zhù dǎo dì wèi shàng”。 tā hái xiū gǎi liǎo mǎ kè · tù wēn de yī jù míng yán， lái shuō míng zhè yī jié lùn de bù què dìng xìng：“ rén réndōu zài duì tiān qì zuò xiē shénme， dàn méi yòu rén tán lùn tā”（ yuán wén shì： rén réndōu zài tán lùn tiān qì， dàn méi yòu yī gè rén néng duì tā yòu suǒ zuò wéi）。
dì 'èr tiān， shī nài dé de míng zì dēng shàng liǎo《 niǔ yuē shí bào》， dài lái de què shì xué jiè tóng rén de bù xiè hé bù mǎn。 nà shí xǔ duō rén rèn wéi， yán jiū xiàn shí shì jiè de kē xué jiā wú fǎ zuò dào kè guān。 bù guò， zhè jiàn shì yě ràng shī nài dé cǐ hòu zì jué dì chéng dān qǐ qì hòu biàn huà chuán bō zhě de juésè。 tā shì tú zhǎo dào néng xiàng gōng zhòng hé zhèng cè zhì dìng zhě chuán dì qì hòu kē xué fā xiàn jiān jù de jǐn pò xìng hé bù què dìng xìng de fāng fǎ。 dàn xiàn shí zhèng míng zhè bù shì yī jiàn róng yì de shì。 1972 nián， shī nài dé zhuǎn dào wèi yú měi guó zhōng xī bù de kē luó lā duō zhōu de guó jiā dà qì yán jiū suǒ。 sān nián hòu， tā chuàng bàn liǎo yī fèn kuà xué kē xué shù qī kān《 qì hòu biàn huà》。 jí shǐ zài 1992 nián zhuǎn dào sī tǎn fú dà xué rèn jiào hòu， tā jì xù dān rèn zhù biān， zhí dào 2010 nián 7 yuè 19 rì yīn xīn zàng bìng tū fā qù shì。
jiè yòng wèi xīng、 jì suàn jī děng xiàn dài jì shù gōng jù， shī nài dé tōng guò fù zá de shù xué mó xíng， duì xiāng guān de yào sù jìn xíng dìng liàng fēn xī， bǐ rú tōng guò hǎi yáng de dòng tài hé yún céng de biàn huà děng， lái yù cè wèi lái dà qì wēn dù de biàn huà。 zài dìng liàng fēn xī de tóng shí， tā yě tè bié zhòng shì fēng xiǎn píng gū。 yīn wéi yǐn qǐ qì hòu biàn huà de rén lèi huó dòng jù yòu nèi zài de bù què dìng xìng。 bù tóng de zhù guān jià zhí tǐ xì， duì qì hòu biàn huà kě néng dài lái de“ wēi xiǎn” rèn zhī yě shì bù tóng de。 shī nài dé céng zhuàn wén zhǐ chū， rú guǒ dì qiú wēn dù shēng gāo 1 shè shì dù zhì 2 shè shì dù， jiāng duì shēng tài xì tǒng chǎn shēng wēi xié， xiǎo dǎo guó yě jiāng miàn lín shēng cún de wēi xié； rú guǒ dì qiú wēn dù shēng gāo dà yú 5 shè shì dù， jiāng dài lái zāinàn xìng de biàn huà。
1988 nián， dāng lián hé guó huán jìng guī huá shǔ zhèng fǔ jiān qì hòu biàn huà zhuān mén wěi yuán huì（ IPCC） chéng lì shí， shī nài dé chéng wéi hé xīn chéng yuán zhī yī。 2007 nián， IPCC hé měi guó qián fù zǒng tǒng gē 'ěr yī qǐ bèi shòu yú nuò bèi 'ěr hé píng jiǎng。
jù yòu fěng cì yì wèi de shì， zuò wéi huán bǎo yùn dòng de fā yuán dì， shī nài dé de mǔ guó měi guó què zài qì hòu biàn huà wèn tí shàng qū yú bǎo shǒu hé tuì bù。 zài 2001 nián tuì chū《 jīng dū yì dìng shū》 hòu， měi guó de zhèng kè hé gōng zhòng duì qì hòu biàn huà duō chí huái yí hé fǒu dìng tài dù。 shī nài dé wèicǐ tōng guò zhù zuò、 dà liàng de gōng zhòng yǎn jiǎng yǐ jí yǔ méi tǐ de hù dòng bù xiè yóushuì， yīn cǐ bèi hěn duō rén chēng wéi“ qì hòu dǒu shì”。
2009 nián 12 yuè， lián hé guó gē běn hā gēn qì hòu dà huì zhào kāi qián， shī nài dé fā biǎo liǎo yī piān cháng wén， duì bù jiǔ qián fā shēng de yīng guó dōng 'ān gé lì yà dà xué qì hòu kē xué jiā diàn zǐ yóu jiàn xiè lù mén yī shì jìn xíng liǎo huí yìng。 tā qiǎn zé nà xiē fēi fǎ qiè qǔ yóu jiàn de“ hēi kè”， yě yán jǐn dì fǎn bó liǎo nà xiē qì hòu huái yí lùn zhě duì yóu jiàn zhōng shè jí de yī xiē kē xué yòng yǔ de fēi kē xué lǐ jiě。
shī nài dé chū shēng yú niǔ yuē cháng dǎo。 2001 nián， tā bèi zhěn duàn chū huàn yòu yī zhǒng hǎn jiàn de nǎo mó yán。 tā jiāng gōng zuò zhōng de jué dìng fēn xī mó xíng yùn yòng dào zì jǐ de zhì liáo shàng， yǔ qī zǐ shāng dìng xiū gǎi yī shēng zǎo xiān de zhì liáo fāng 'àn。 sì nián hòu， zài yǐ gè rén jīng lì zhuàn xiě de《 lái zì dì yù de bìng rén》 yī shū zhōng， shī nài dé hūyù suǒ yòu de bìng rén：“ rú guǒ bù shì hé nǐ， bù yào méi yòu dǒu zhēng， jiù jiē shòu yī gè biāo zhǔn de zhì liáo fāng 'àn。”
( cáo hǎi lì )
His research included modeling of the atmosphere, climate change, and "the relationship of biological systems to global climate change." Schneider was the founder and editor of the journal Climatic Change and authored or co-authored over 450 scientific papers and other publications. He was a Coordinating Lead Author in Working Group II IPCC TAR and was engaged as a co-anchor of the Key Vulnerabilities Cross-Cutting Theme for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) at the time of his death. During the 1980s, Schneider emerged as a leading public advocate of sharp reductions of greenhouse gas emissions to combat global warming.
Early work
Schneider grew up in Long Island, New York. He studied engineering at Columbia University, receiving his bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering in 1966. In 1971, he earned a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering and plasma physics. Schneider studied the role of greenhouse gases and suspended particulate material on climate as a postdoctoral fellow at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. After briefly warning that the earth could be facing an ice age, he turned his attention to the threat he perceived as coming from warming.
In 1971, Schneider was second author on a Science paper with S. I. Rasool titled "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate" (Science 173, 138–141). This paper used a 1-d radiative transfer model to examine the competing effects of cooling from aerosols and warming from CO2. The paper concluded:
However, it is projected that man's potential to pollute will increase 6 to 8-fold in the next 50 years. If this increased rate of injection... should raise the present background opacity by a factor of 4, our calculations suggest a decrease in global temperature by as much as 3.5 °C. Such a large decrease in the average temperature of Earth, sustained over a period of few years, is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age. However, by that time, nuclear power may have largely replaced fossil fuels as a means of energy production.
Carbon dioxide was predicted to have only a minor role. However, the model was very simple and the calculation of the CO2 effect was lower than other estimates by a factor of about three, as noted in a footnote to the paper.
In 1976 Schneider wrote The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival in which he said:
One form of such pollution that affects the entire atmosphere is the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas.... Human activities have already raised the CO2 content in the atmosphere by 10 percent and are estimated to raise it some 25 percent by the year 2000. In later chapters, I will show how this increase could lead to a 1° Celsius (1.8° Fahrenheit) average warming of the earth's surface... Another form of atmospheric pollution results from... atmospheric aerosols... there is some evidence that atmospheric aerosols may have already affected the climate. A consensus among scientists today would hold that a global increase in atmospheric aerosols would probably result in a cooling of the climate; however, a smaller but growing fraction of the current evidence suggests that it may have a warming effect.
And in another section (What Does It All Mean?", p. 90):
I have cited many examples of recent climatic variability and repeated the warnings of several well-known climatologists that a cooling effect has set in – perhaps one akin to the Little Ice Age - and that climatic variability, which is the bane of reliable food production, can be expected to increase along with the cooling.
In 1977 Schneider criticized a popular science book (The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age) that predicted an imminent Ice Age, writing in Nature:
...it insists on maintaining the shock effect of the dramatic...rather than the reality of the discipline: we just don't know enough to choose definitely at this stage whether we are in for warming or cooling— or when.
[edit]Media contributions
He was a frequent contributor to commercial and noncommercial print and broadcast media on climate and environmental issues, e.g., NOVA, Planet Earth, Nightline, Today Show, Tonight Show, Good Morning America, Dateline, Discovery Channel, British, Canadian and Australian Broadcasting Corporations.
Schneider has commented about the frustrations and difficulties involved with assessing and communicating scientific ideas.
In a January 2002 Scientific American article Schneider wrote:
I readily confess a lingering frustration: uncertainties so infuse the issue of climate change that it is still impossible to rule out either mild or catastrophic outcomes, let alone provide confident probabilities for all the claims and counterclaims made about environmental problems. Even the most credible international assessment body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has refused to attempt subjective probabilistic estimates of future temperatures. This has forced politicians to make their own guesses about the likelihood of various degrees of global warming.
In 1989, Schneider addressed the challenge scientists face trying to communicate complex, important issues without adequate time during media interviews. This citation sometimes was used by his critics to accuse him of supporting misuse of science for political goals:
On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we'd like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both. (Quoted in Discover, pp. 45–48, Oct. 1989. For the original, together with Schneider's commentary on its misrepresentation, see also American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996.).
Schneider has accused people, including Julian Simon, of deliberately taking this quote out of context in order to misrepresent his views.
[edit]Honors
1992 MacArthur Fellow "Genius Award".
2002 Elected to the National Academy of Sciences.
Chair of the American Association for the Advancement of Science’s Section on Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences (1999–2001).
Received a collective Nobel Peace Prize for his joint efforts with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007).
[edit]Personal
Schneider was a survivor of an aggressive cancer, mantle cell lymphoma. He documented his struggle to conquer the condition, including applying his own knowledge of science to design his own treatment regime, in a self-published 2005 book, The Patient from Hell. He died unexpectedly on July 19, 2010 after suffering a pulmonary embolism while returning from a scientific meeting in Käringön, Sweden.
[edit]Selected publications
Michael D. Mastrandrea; Stephen H. Schneider (October 2010). Preparing for Climate Change. MIT Press. ISBN 0-262-01488-2.
Stephen H. Schneider, Tim Flannery introduction (2009) 'Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save the Earth's Climate. National Geographic (November 3, 2009) ISBN 978-1426205408
Stephen H. Schneider, Janica Lane (2005) The Patient from Hell: How I Worked with My Doctors to Get the Best of Modern Medicine and How You Can Too. Da Capo Lifelong Books.
Stephen H. Schneider, Armin Rosencranz, John O. Niles (eds., 2002), Climate Change Policy: A Survey, Island Press, 368 pp; June 2002.
Stephen H. Schneider and Terry L. Root (Editors, 2001), Wildlife Responses to Climate Change: North American Case Studies, Island Press; December 2001.
Stephen H. Schneider (1997), Laboratory Earth: the Planetary Gamble We Can't Afford to Lose, HarperCollins; January 1997
Stephen H. Schneider (Editor, 1996), Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather, Oxford University Press; May 1996.
Stephen H. Schneider, Penelope J. Boston (Eds, 1992), Scientists on Gaia, MIT Press; February 1992
Stephen H. Schneider (1989), Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century?, Sierra Club Books; October 1989
Stephen H. Schneider, Randi Londer (1984), Coevolution of Climate and Life, Sierra Club Books; May 1984
Stephen H. Schneider, Lynne E. Mesirow (1976), The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival, Plenum Pub Corp; April 1976.