閱讀斯蒂芬·施奈德 Stephen Schneider在百家争鸣的作品!!! | |||
人生有時會由於一個日子而完全改變。1970年4月22日，美國數十萬群衆走上街頭，呼籲創造一個清潔、簡單、和平的生活環境。由此而來的“地球日”成為現代環保運動的開端，也改變了斯蒂芬·施奈德（Stephen Schneider）的職業生涯。那一年，25歲的施奈德還是紐約哥倫比亞大學一名機械工程和等離子物理學的博士生。
在此兩年前，哥倫比亞大學正處於學生反戰抗議運動的中心。施奈德最初並未介入，他並不贊同那些激進的學運分子“你或者和我們站在一起，或者反對我們”的口號。但是，當校方終於同意與學生代表談判時，他覺得是站出來的時候了。
施奈德被選舉為一個新成立的對話委員會的副主席，也給了他難得的“政治培訓”：必須傾聽雙方的意見，要承認每一方的觀點中都有合理因素，然後試圖在不同的價值體係和觀點中，尋找一條雙方都能接受的道路，以實現雙贏。多年後，當他在氣候變化科學研究領域遭遇現實的障礙時，這種感悟亦成為與公衆和反對者溝通的指導原則。
獲得博士學位的施奈德轉投美國國傢宇航局（NASA）戈達德（Goddard）太空研究所做博士後，開始氣候變化的研究。1972年，他受邀在美國科學促進會的年會上發言。他的發現之一是，大氣微粒將導致地球變冷，而溫室氣體將使地球變暖。他警告公衆，這“並非最終結論，特別是在哪種效果將占主導地位上”。他還修改了馬剋·吐溫的一句名言，來說明這一結論的不確定性：“人人都在對天氣做些什麽，但沒有人談論它”（原文是：人人都在談論天氣，但沒有一個人能對它有所作為）。
第二天，施奈德的名字登上了《紐約時報》，帶來的卻是學界同仁的不屑和不滿。那時許多人認為，研究現實世界的科學家無法做到客觀。不過，這件事也讓施奈德此後自覺地承擔起氣候變化傳播者的角色。他試圖找到能嚮公衆和政策製定者傳遞氣候科學發現兼具的緊迫性和不確定性的方法。但現實證明這不是一件容易的事。1972年，施奈德轉到位於美國中西部的科羅拉多州的國傢大氣研究所。三年後，他創辦了一份跨學科學術期刊 《氣候變化》。即使在1992年轉到斯坦福大學任教後，他繼續擔任主編，直到2010年7月19日因心髒病突發去世。
藉用衛星、計算機等現代技術工具，施奈德通過復雜的數學模型，對相關的要素進行定量分析，比如通過海洋的動態和雲層的變化等，來預測未來大氣溫度的變化。在定量分析的同時，他也特別重視風險評估。因為引起氣候變化的人類活動具有內在的不確定性。不同的主觀價值體係，對氣候變化可能帶來的“危險”認知也是不同的。施奈德曾撰文指出，如果地球溫度升高1攝氏度至2攝氏度，將對生態係統産生威脅，小島國也將面臨生存的威脅；如果地球溫度升高大於5攝氏度，將帶來災難性的變化。
1988年，當聯合國環境規劃署政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）成立時，施奈德成為核心成員之一。2007年，IPCC和美國前副總統戈爾一起被授予諾貝爾和平奬。
具有諷刺意味的是，作為環保運動的發源地，施奈德的母國美國卻在氣候變化問題上趨於保守和退步。在2001年退出《京都議定書》後，美國的政客和公衆對氣候變化多持懷疑和否定態度。施奈德為此通過著作、大量的公衆演講以及與媒體的互動不懈遊說，因此被很多人稱為“氣候鬥士”。
2009年12月，聯合國哥本哈根氣候大會召開前，施奈德發表了一篇長文，對不久前發生的英國東安格利亞大學氣候科學家電子郵件泄露門一事進行了回應。他譴責那些非法竊取郵件的“黑客”，也嚴謹地反駁了那些氣候懷疑論者對郵件中涉及的一些科學用語的非科學理解。
施奈德出生於紐約長島。2001年，他被診斷出患有一種罕見的腦膜炎。他將工作中的决定分析模型運用到自己的治療上，與妻子商定修改醫生早先的治療方案。四年後，在以個人經歷撰寫的《來自地獄的病人》一書中，施奈德呼籲所有的病人：“如果不適合你，不要沒有鬥爭，就接受一個標準的治療方案。”
(曹海麗)
His research included modeling of the atmosphere, climate change, and "the relationship of biological systems to global climate change." Schneider was the founder and editor of the journal Climatic Change and authored or co-authored over 450 scientific papers and other publications. He was a Coordinating Lead Author in Working Group II IPCC TAR and was engaged as a co-anchor of the Key Vulnerabilities Cross-Cutting Theme for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) at the time of his death. During the 1980s, Schneider emerged as a leading public advocate of sharp reductions of greenhouse gas emissions to combat global warming.
Early work
Schneider grew up in Long Island, New York. He studied engineering at Columbia University, receiving his bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering in 1966. In 1971, he earned a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering and plasma physics. Schneider studied the role of greenhouse gases and suspended particulate material on climate as a postdoctoral fellow at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. After briefly warning that the earth could be facing an ice age, he turned his attention to the threat he perceived as coming from warming.
In 1971, Schneider was second author on a Science paper with S. I. Rasool titled "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate" (Science 173, 138–141). This paper used a 1-d radiative transfer model to examine the competing effects of cooling from aerosols and warming from CO2. The paper concluded:
However, it is projected that man's potential to pollute will increase 6 to 8-fold in the next 50 years. If this increased rate of injection... should raise the present background opacity by a factor of 4, our calculations suggest a decrease in global temperature by as much as 3.5 °C. Such a large decrease in the average temperature of Earth, sustained over a period of few years, is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age. However, by that time, nuclear power may have largely replaced fossil fuels as a means of energy production.
Carbon dioxide was predicted to have only a minor role. However, the model was very simple and the calculation of the CO2 effect was lower than other estimates by a factor of about three, as noted in a footnote to the paper.
In 1976 Schneider wrote The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival in which he said:
One form of such pollution that affects the entire atmosphere is the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas.... Human activities have already raised the CO2 content in the atmosphere by 10 percent and are estimated to raise it some 25 percent by the year 2000. In later chapters, I will show how this increase could lead to a 1° Celsius (1.8° Fahrenheit) average warming of the earth's surface... Another form of atmospheric pollution results from... atmospheric aerosols... there is some evidence that atmospheric aerosols may have already affected the climate. A consensus among scientists today would hold that a global increase in atmospheric aerosols would probably result in a cooling of the climate; however, a smaller but growing fraction of the current evidence suggests that it may have a warming effect.
And in another section (What Does It All Mean?", p. 90):
I have cited many examples of recent climatic variability and repeated the warnings of several well-known climatologists that a cooling effect has set in – perhaps one akin to the Little Ice Age - and that climatic variability, which is the bane of reliable food production, can be expected to increase along with the cooling.
In 1977 Schneider criticized a popular science book (The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age) that predicted an imminent Ice Age, writing in Nature:
...it insists on maintaining the shock effect of the dramatic...rather than the reality of the discipline: we just don't know enough to choose definitely at this stage whether we are in for warming or cooling— or when.
[edit]Media contributions
He was a frequent contributor to commercial and noncommercial print and broadcast media on climate and environmental issues, e.g., NOVA, Planet Earth, Nightline, Today Show, Tonight Show, Good Morning America, Dateline, Discovery Channel, British, Canadian and Australian Broadcasting Corporations.
Schneider has commented about the frustrations and difficulties involved with assessing and communicating scientific ideas.
In a January 2002 Scientific American article Schneider wrote:
I readily confess a lingering frustration: uncertainties so infuse the issue of climate change that it is still impossible to rule out either mild or catastrophic outcomes, let alone provide confident probabilities for all the claims and counterclaims made about environmental problems. Even the most credible international assessment body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has refused to attempt subjective probabilistic estimates of future temperatures. This has forced politicians to make their own guesses about the likelihood of various degrees of global warming.
In 1989, Schneider addressed the challenge scientists face trying to communicate complex, important issues without adequate time during media interviews. This citation sometimes was used by his critics to accuse him of supporting misuse of science for political goals:
On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we'd like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both. (Quoted in Discover, pp. 45–48, Oct. 1989. For the original, together with Schneider's commentary on its misrepresentation, see also American Physical Society, APS News August/September 1996.).
Schneider has accused people, including Julian Simon, of deliberately taking this quote out of context in order to misrepresent his views.
[edit]Honors
1992 MacArthur Fellow "Genius Award".
2002 Elected to the National Academy of Sciences.
Chair of the American Association for the Advancement of Science’s Section on Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences (1999–2001).
Received a collective Nobel Peace Prize for his joint efforts with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007).
[edit]Personal
Schneider was a survivor of an aggressive cancer, mantle cell lymphoma. He documented his struggle to conquer the condition, including applying his own knowledge of science to design his own treatment regime, in a self-published 2005 book, The Patient from Hell. He died unexpectedly on July 19, 2010 after suffering a pulmonary embolism while returning from a scientific meeting in Käringön, Sweden.
[edit]Selected publications
Michael D. Mastrandrea; Stephen H. Schneider (October 2010). Preparing for Climate Change. MIT Press. ISBN 0-262-01488-2.
Stephen H. Schneider, Tim Flannery introduction (2009) 'Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save the Earth's Climate. National Geographic (November 3, 2009) ISBN 978-1426205408
Stephen H. Schneider, Janica Lane (2005) The Patient from Hell: How I Worked with My Doctors to Get the Best of Modern Medicine and How You Can Too. Da Capo Lifelong Books.
Stephen H. Schneider, Armin Rosencranz, John O. Niles (eds., 2002), Climate Change Policy: A Survey, Island Press, 368 pp; June 2002.
Stephen H. Schneider and Terry L. Root (Editors, 2001), Wildlife Responses to Climate Change: North American Case Studies, Island Press; December 2001.
Stephen H. Schneider (1997), Laboratory Earth: the Planetary Gamble We Can't Afford to Lose, HarperCollins; January 1997
Stephen H. Schneider (Editor, 1996), Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather, Oxford University Press; May 1996.
Stephen H. Schneider, Penelope J. Boston (Eds, 1992), Scientists on Gaia, MIT Press; February 1992
Stephen H. Schneider (1989), Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century?, Sierra Club Books; October 1989
Stephen H. Schneider, Randi Londer (1984), Coevolution of Climate and Life, Sierra Club Books; May 1984
Stephen H. Schneider, Lynne E. Mesirow (1976), The Genesis Strategy: Climate and Global Survival, Plenum Pub Corp; April 1976.