Speculate or pre-determination. Chen Tian, "Poetry Chronicle, Ming C. Lin Chao signed": "Book of a family of five, three wine, III posthumous text, non-exclusive only to see the Ming Dynasty, ancient and rare its London also strongly praised ... ... vertical, security can predict such a child named Sheng True or false? "Mao Dun" Midnight "Five:" This time of the strikes he can not predict, and even that is not properly estimate yesterday to the power of male workers in big. "
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No. 3
That prior determination and guess. Lu Xun's "Letters To Summer pass on": "experience of more than one, can know the consequences of the past so I always have experience in the forecast." Summer hideaway respect tao "Oncidium" 19: "Leroy, I do not have words to say to you next I only wish you did not live up to my forecast. "Feng Xuefeng," Fox's nightmare ":" Although there is no basis to conclude that the accuracy of his prediction, can always keep heart. "
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Explanation
Forecasts, research and forecast future events will occur and results. Similar predictions forecast, divination, the former may be detected by scientific methods are available, the latter is often not falsifiable.
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Definition of scientific prediction
Prediction (forecasting) is an art expected future events, a science. It contains a collection of historical data with the mathematical model to extrapolate future. It can also be expected in the future subjective or intuitive. It may also be the above-described synthesis, the mathematical model that is adjusted by the manager of good judgment. When forecasting, prediction methods no one will be effective. In an enterprise environment is the best predictor of a method, or even to another enterprise within the corporate sector, but another may be totally not apply. Whatever method is used for prediction, the predicted effect is limited, is not perfect. But almost no one company can not be predicted but just wait until something happens and then take action, a good short-term or long-term business plan depends on the forecast demand for our products.
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Type of scientific prediction
In planning for the future by using a business enterprise can be divided into three types of prediction: economic forecasts (economic forecasts), technology forecasting (technological forecasts), demand forecasting (demand forecasts). 1, the economic forecasts (economic forecasts), by expected inflation, money supply, housing starts and other relevant indicators to predict economic cycles. 2, technology forecasting (technological forecasts), that prediction will lead to important new products, thereby stimulating technological advances new plants and equipment needs. 3, demand forecasting (demand forecasts), company product or service demand forecasting. These projections, also called sales forecasts to determine the company's production, production capacity and planning system, and to the company's financial, marketing, personnel changes accordingly. It contains a time span to classification, there are three categories: short-term forecasts, interim forecasts, long-term forecasts 1, short-term forecasts. Short-term prediction time span of up to one year, usually less than three months. It is used for purchases, working arrangements, the required staff, planning work and production levels specified. 2, medium-term forecasts. MRF time span is usually from three months to three years. It is used for sales planning, production planning and budgeting, cash budgeting and analysis of different jobs program. 3, long-term projections. Long-term projections of the time span is usually more than three years and three years. It is used for planning new products, capital expenditures, production equipment installation or vocation, and research and development. MRF and the difference between long-term and short-term forecasts predicted mainly in the following three aspects: First, the long-term prediction to deal with more comprehensive issues and provide support for the main products, factories, process management decisions; Second, the method usually used to predict short-term and long-term forecasts using different methods. Short-term and commonly used methods such as toilet moving average, exponential smoothing and trend extrapolation method is. More general, less quantifiable method for determining whether a new product, such as production, such as CD, etc.; Third, short-term forecasts tend to be more precise than the long-term forecast. Factors affecting demand are changed daily, so when the extended time span, the prediction accuracy is often decreased.
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Scientific forecasting methods
There are four basic methods to predict type: qualitative forecasting, time series analysis, causal link method and simulation. Qualitative Qualitative forecasts predict a subjective judgment, which is based on estimates and evaluation. Common qualitative forecasting methods include: general forecasts, market research method, panel discussions, historical analogy, the Delphi method. Time series analysis of time series analysis is built on such a basis _set_, the demand associated with past historical data can be used to predict future demand. Historical data may contain information such as trend, season, period and other factors. Common time series analysis methods are: simple moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, Baucus Jenkins Act, Francis Kim time series and so on. Causal law causal link is assumed to be some internal factors or external factors related to the needs of the surrounding environment. Common causal law are: regression analysis, econometric models, input-output model, the line indicators. Analog simulation model allows the prediction of the condition forecaster a degree assumption.
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General Procedure for scientific prediction
Whatever the prediction method is used, when the forecast must follow the following steps: 1, to determine prediction purposes. This step is to be sure that we want to achieve predict what kind of goals. 2 _Select_ predict object. This step is to determine what objects we need to predict. For example, the production forecast market demand typically required to predict the company's products in order to specify the production plan for the company to provide information. 3, determine the predicted time span. This step is carried out to determine the predicted time span is short, medium or long term? 4, _select_ predictive models. This step is to choose a suitable prediction model based on the nature of the object features demanded forecast and forecast for the next forecast. 5, to collect the required data prediction. When collecting data needed to predict, we must ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data sheet. 6, validate predictive models. This step is to determine the predictive model we have chosen for predicting whether we want to be effective. 7, make predictions. This step, we want to predict the target we need to make a reasonable prediction based on relevant data collected and determined front forecasting models. 8, the results of the prediction into practical use. Follow the previous steps, we need to have to make a forecast predicting object, this step, we need to predict the results will be applied to practical to go to achieve our goal to predict. For example, production forecasts, the market demand for our future products, the companies were predicted after, you need to determine the basis of these forecasts the company's production planning and scheduling. These steps are summarized in the above system began the design and application of all aspects of a forecast. If this is done regularly predicted data should be collected regularly. The actual operation can be carried out by a computer.
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Scientific Prediction attention problems
(A) determine the role of prediction 1 judgment in the _select_ion of the role of prediction methods 2 to determine the role of information in identifying 3. Determine the role of choice in the predicted results Accuracy and Cost (two) predicted When _select_ing a prediction method, obviously a tradeoff between cost and precision. Cost prediction accuracy is generally higher in the implementation, but it can achieve a higher accuracy, ie the smaller the actual deviation from the predicted values, thus ultimately reduce the cost of production and operation. It should be noted: first, 100% accurate prediction method does not exist, and therefore do not absolutely accurate to predict vain. Second, far as any prediction, the existence of reasonable accuracy the lowest cost range. Time and update frequency (three) predicted Prediction is based on history, based on the present and the future. From the time between now and the future is predictable timeframe. Different forecasting methods have different time frames, so pay special attention to this point in the _select_ion of prediction methods should be. Further, the greater the time range, the less accurate prediction. Also, any kind of prediction methods are not fully applicable to a prediction problem, should continue to test prediction methods based on actual demand. If the predicted value and the actual value of the deviation is too large, you should update the prediction method. (D) stability and responsiveness Stability and responsiveness are two basic requirements for forecasting methods. Stability is the resistance to random interference, stable response capacity needs. Good stability prediction methods help eliminate or reduce the influence of random factors applicable to the prediction of random factors affecting the larger problem. Response refers to the ability to quickly react to changes in demand. Good response prediction method can keep up with changes in actual demand, the problem affected a small random factors apply. Good stability and responsiveness are predicted goal.
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Learn to predict Introduction
Learn Forecast: learn to use methods to predict, forecasters are easy to learn to use their own familiar with methods for prediction of unknown comprehend things. For example, to learn home itself is not a stock expert, and to predict the stock market. Learn prediction method contains gossip forecasts predict Liu Yao, Qi Men Dun Jia forecast and so on. 1, Book of forecasting principles Ching predicted five eventuality: Insincerity eventuality. The information is not accurate impure thoughts, which reflects the Gua information is not accurate Nothing unexpected. Do not want to try to play test, measurement is not necessarily quasi- Do not move any eventuality. Such as: measuring the game, I do not know the game time, I do not know how to measure the hype Heavy Gua eventuality. Such as: what has been measured was a hexagram, hexagram want to see if renewed a match, this does not guarantee the correctness Unexpected errors. Illegal things are not gods woo, Ji Gua Gua fierce gods do not now 2, Book of forecasting methods Qigua First, shake Gua law Brief Introduction: Please be prepared to shake Gua three coins, currency Qianlong Best (truthfully no, so please take other similar rationale coins). No word side is called "back", you need to write down each shake Gua appear several "back", a total of six times to shake Gua. This method has assisted program to help Qigua. Specific steps: 1, three coins placed in the palm of his hands clasp together, focused on the idea of measuring things (for example, think about a minute). 2, and then shake their money and doing nothing to fall (the first time), write down anyway: Four cases may occur: a dorsal (denoted by.), Two back (denoted ..), three back (referred to as O), no back (denoted by X). 3, again picked up the coins and shaking wash falling (second, do not think for a minute, but the idea still focused), write down anyway, notation above. 4, to pick up the coins and shaking wash fall (third), write down anyway. 5, to pick up the coins and shaking wash falling (fourth), write down anyway. 6, to pick up the coins and shaking wash falling (fifth), write down anyway. 7, to pick up the coins and shaking wash falling (sixth), write down anyway. At this point a hexagram fast become. Results are recorded examples are as follows: (the order must be recorded correctly!) X was measured X XX X month X day when something: Sixth: X tri (fork) Fifth: O three back (laps) Fourth: .. two back a positive (two points) Third: X tri (fork) Second: .. two back a positive (two points) The first: a back-di-n-(a little) Second, the time Gua (more complex, non-enthusiasts do not have to careful study) _Select_ Qigua time, then press "OK" button, too. 1, the total number of years + months + days, was divided by eight, the remainder of the Gua number. 2 years + months + days + when the total number was divided by eight, the remainder for the next few Gua. 3 months years + + + Total number of days when the number is divided by six, the remainder of the movable Yao number. Description: A, whichever number of years with the ordinal number of the Earthly Branches, such as the child is 1, 2 and so ugly, months and days of the lunar month whichever ordinal number, such as the Lunar New Year is the first day you take one, then take the first two days of the Lunar 2, and so on. B, Gua ordinal number of congenital gossip. Third, the number of Gua Generally choose two numbers. (Yin and geography from Hubei Province)
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Economic Encyclopedia
Forecast (Forecasting): Estimated status of future events that may occur, as to draw up plans to provide managers assumption or premise.
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Encyclopedia
Forecast People in the observation and analysis to predict the history and current status of the development of objective things Based on its future status inference process. In the socio-economic activities, both from a macro The angle of view or from the microscopic point of view, there are many unknown factors that affect the decision Policy. In order to overcome the unknown factors that may bring negative consequences, must be science-based Projections. Forecasting is a science, but also a technology, which is very extensive. Including economic pre- Measurement, technology forecasting and social forecasting. On the method of its application, there are qualitative predictions and Quantitative prediction two kinds. The forecast period of time, there are long-term forecasts, the MRF and Short-term forecasts of the points. Forecasts generally includes the steps of: determining predicted target; data collection and analysis needed And data; choose forecasting methods to predict; prediction results were analyzed and judged. Prediction works as follows: Get forecast information is the prediction rule A survey research - BU prediction method - a prediction application Prediction Predict the role of decision-making and planning through to implementation. Prediction is the decision-making A key input process, and the action plan is the output of the decision-making process. Forecasters Intelligence or the producer of information, intelligence and decision-makers or consumers of information. Forecast The size of the role, depending on the use of the revenue generated by the predicted results are beyond the Fees paid and how much exceeded. Predict the size of the impact of various factors , Mainly the following: the level of forecast costs; complexity of forecasting methods; pre- Measured timeliness; accuracy of prediction results; law significant changes in the presence or absence of historical data The length of the forecast period; variations.
v.: extrapolate, predict, prognosticate, statement that predicts sth with the help of information
vt.: forecast
French Expression
v. prévoir
Thesaurus
forecast infer, natural consequence or result, educe, by reasoning, consecution, reasoning from general principles to a particular case, extrapolate, from facts that are already known, infer, based on known data, design, throw, transmit, cast, aspect feature, highlight, planned, estimate of future situations or trends, etc based on a study of present ones, apprehension, apprehend, reasoning, qiangpaosheng, action
Related Phrases
black
road
qiming
fortune-telling
yixue
character eight
shushu
the Eclectics, a school of thoughts flourishing in ancient China